Analysis: Mayoral results

The results are in, and Chris Spearman was elected mayor.

In fact he was elected by a long shot. He took home nearly half of all mayoral votes cast, distancing himself from Bridget Mearns, his nearest competitor, by nearly 3500 votes.

Candidate	Votes	%
Chris Spearman	9855	46.12
Bridget Mearns	6410	30.00
Faron Ellis	4101	19.19
Curtis Simpson	1000	4.68

Even though Mearns missed her spot by a significant margin, she still garnered an impressive portion of the popular votes, nearly a third. Ellis and Simpson together came in at under a quarter of the votes. She ate at Spearman’s lead all night long, but it was never quite enough.

Ellis had a poor showing by any measurement. Despite the vote being split 6 different ways in 2010, the top 4 candidates all managed to come in above 20%. Given the apparent support Ellis had in the community (including the rumours that he had the backing of the CHBA and that he may have spent up to $100,000 on his campaign), his poor showing was a surprise.

Simpson was a newcomer, and compared to the other three, was relatively unknown, so it wasn’t surprising that he came in last. Reportedly, he had a goal of hitting 1000 votes, and he managed to get exactly that number.

It was no surprise that Spearman got in; after all, he lost to Rajko Dodic in 2010 by only 212 votes. It also shouldn’t come as a surprise that he did as well as he did. In the last four elections when new mayors were sworn in, the number of candidates affected the amount of the popular vote each winner attained.

In 1986, David Carpenter won in a 3-way race with 57% of the popular vote. Spearman won out of 4 and garnered 46%. When Bob Tarleck won the 2001 election, 5 people were running, and he captured 40% of the vote. Rajko Dodic won the smallest percentage of the popular vote (only 25%) in 2010, but he had the largest number of competitors.

Worries of inexperience plagued Spearman throughout the campaign, prompting him to preemptively address the concern in debates and on social media by claiming his time on the Catholic school board was significant enough experience to prepare him for the mayor’s chair. Regardless, this shows pundits that the electorate doesn’t consider direct city council experience a prerequisite for voting in a mayor.

Spearman ran on a platform of change, and it will be interesting to see how much change he can effect over the next 4 years.

Stay tuned for an analysis on the councillor race.